good morning. i'm chris jansing. a new poll shows the race for president getting turned upside down. now it's mitt romney leading the president by four points among likely voters in a new pew poll. that same poll shows enthusiasm for romney growing along with his likability. >> people wonder why it is i'm so confident we're going to win. i'm confident because i see you here on a day like this. this is unbelievable. >> but that poll coming to a different conclusion than gallup's daily tracking poll to this point, which still has obama in the lead, and the obama campaign is getting a lot of attention with this brand-new ad featuring big bird. >> criminals, glutens of greed and the evil genius who towered over them? one man has the guts to speak his name. >> big bird. big bird. big bird. >> it's me, big bird. >> big, yellow, a menace to our

economy. mitt romney knows it's not wall street you have to worry about, it's sesame street. >> i want to bring in anne kornblut, deputy national politics editor for "washington post," and "usa today" politics reporter jackie kucinich. good morning. >> good morning. >> good to see you both. >> good morning. >> anne, let me start with you. there are a number of polls that show nationally a number of different things. what's the big picture here? is it that this is still the horse race? >> i think that's exactly the takeaway, that regardless of what the variations may be in a couple of the, really, the big two polls you mentioned, gallup and pew, it's a close race. i think there was a perception coming out of the conventions and particularly with obama getting something of a bounce going into the debates that obama had a clear edge and that, in fact, it would be very hard to turn this around for romney in the final weeks. what we're seeing now i think is that may not be the case and the october surprise everyone always talks about is, in fact, that we're back where we were in the spring. it's a very close race.

>> and in fact, to the point of both of the campaigns, they've been saying all along they thought in the end this was going to be a very tight race, but some of the numbers that really jump out for me, jackie, are enthusiasm and engagement. 67% of romney's supporters now back him strongly. 82% say they're giving a lot of thought to this election. this was a guy who going into his convention, and not the most successful convention, either, was still having trouble getting people really excited about his campaign. has he turned that around? >> you know, there's two things here. i mean, we talked about this all the way going up to the debate how important that debate was, and it was very important for mitt romney, and now we're seeing the benefits for him, that he had a really good debate. the other thing is, i think when you talk to a lot of republicans before the debate, they would say variations of romney needs to show people that he is an alternative to obama, that he's someone who could be president. and i think in this debate, a lot of people thought that he showed that. and so, that's why you see, i

mean, this enthusiasm. romney needs people to go out and vote, so this is a good indicator for republicans. >> and yet, the obama campaign thinks they have found something out of that debate that could work for them, which brings us to the "sesame street" ad. we played it. it's something president obama is even working into his stump speech. >> elmo has been seen in a white suburban. he's driving for the border. oscar's hiding out in his trash can. governor romney's plan is to let wall street run wild again, but he's going to bring the hammer down on "sesame street." >> o.j. simpson and "sesame street" in the same new line there, anne. certainly, this is the kind of thing people are talking about. it's going to run all over cable today, but will it make a difference? >> yeah, you know, it's good pictures, it made for a nice cameo on "saturday night live," big bird showing up there. and look, there aren't many

one-named celebrities in this country that people know, but i think elmo and oscar qualify. and look, it's an easy target. and you know, i think republicans would say that mitt romney was simply being honest in bringing it up, and in fact, perhaps being brave in bringing up the financing of public broadcasting, but this is a perennial. we see this debate every time the financing for public broadcasting comes up. i guess i'm a little surprised it would show up this late in a presidential campaign, but not at all to see democrats, who have traditionally been on the side of more financing, embracing it. >> and here's what john mccain, when he, matt showed him the ad this morning on the "today" show, here's what he had to say about it. >> oh, i think it probably gets attention, but again, it may show a possity of ideas and ways to criticize mitt romney. the fact is that the economy is still in very bad shape. and the one thing that president obama can't run on is his record. and so, big bird, i guess, is a

fun thing to talk about. >> here's the graphic that the rnc is sending around. they call it "campaign street." does this work for the democrats, do you think, jackie? >> i don't think so. it's kind of silly season a little bit on this one. it's also a very small part of the budget which i think would be the larger point, that we're talking about something that's 0.0 something part of the budget. it's really not a big deal, so i don't think in the long run this is going to do anything. >> i want to bring in congresswoman marcy kaptur of ohio. good morning. >> good morning. >> aren't you popular in ohio? both candidates rb there today, mitt romney will be there five of the next days and here's what reince priebus told me yesterday. >> as far as if you can win without ohio, i think you can. obviously, we're doing well out west in colorado and nevada. >> fact of the matter is, you

talk to almost any republican analyst and they say ohio is critical to their success, and they wouldn't be putting their candidate there four out of the next five days in this home stretch if they didn't think they had a chance. do you think the republicans smell blood in ohio, congresswoman? >> well, no republican has actually won the presidency in modern history without ohio, so it's natural that they would be here, but more importantly, they're here because barack obama is winning ohio and ohio intends to send him back to the white house. most importantly, here in cleveland and across northern ohio, because he saved the auto industry. and one of eight jobs in ohio relates to that critical industry, which by the way, has had the highest level of sales since february of 2008 last month. so -- >> let me ask you about that, because i think that is an important point and it's something the president has talked about repeatedly in his list of accomplishments. but let's take your neighboring state of michigan, the other state where the auto industry is so critical.

the president was leading by ten. now his lead has been cut to three. and i'm wondering, when you look at the polls tightening little bit in ohio, tightening for sure in michigan, are you worried that some voters are saying, yeah, but what have you done for me lately? >> well, if you look at the last several presidential races going back to 1976, after the first debate, the non-incumbent had a little bit of a surge. so, i think what we're seeing is normal. but here in ohio, on the ground, you can feel an obama victory. people sat here in cleveland for three hours in the rain the other day, 10,000 people, waiting for the president, and the enthusiasm was incredible. i think that we will welcome the governor here -- >> to be fair, it's not exactly a swing district. >> well, but it drew from all of northeastern ohio. people were here from -- they came up to cleveland state university from all parts, you know, northeastern ohio.

we've got expressways that lead in to cleveland from everywhere. so, the point is that across ohio, because unemployment has dropped below the national average and more and more people are being called back, you're really seeing a securing of the vote by the president, and i think he's come here, he's not taking it for granted, that's for sure. and people don't want to go back to the bush policies. and in terms of, you know, romney's policies at bain capital that essentially say bankruptcy's the answer, you would have thrown the auto industry into bankruptcy. president obama saved the auto industry of this country and ohioans know how to say thank you. >> and yet, he hasn't gained ground, without a doubt, when you look at latest polls that happened since the debate. and we've heard a lot from democrats about what they're calling the new mitt romney, moving to the middle. >> well, he's actually taken on president obama's program, energy independence. who's worked harder for energy independence than the president of the united states? so -- >> let me play for you what rudy

giuliani said about those charges by democrats that mitt romney is changing his tune. >> i don't think he's moving to the center. i think he's always been pretty much where he is. it's a question of what you emphasize. to me, governor romney has always been a very sensible businessman who is going to make sensible decisions. i think ideology is important to him, but i don't think ideology overwhelms him. >> is this the same mitt romney as he describes? because some republicans are suggesting that it smacks of desperation and they think it's unpresidential that the campaign has been suggesting that mitt romney is a liar. >> i don't think that we can really understand where mitt romney stands on the issues. he talked about not taxing the wealthy. now he says he will tax the wealthy. he talks about energy independence now but didn't support the president on his programs to create alternative forms of energy for our country, which this president did.

he talks about tax changes to help business development. who did that? president obama, with 100% tax credit in manufacturing, for example, which has just sizzled across the industrial midwest with the business start-ups that we see. even art furnaces being installed on the ohio republic steel. we haven't seen this in two decades. so, he can talk as a candidate, but the president has done it in a very difficult situation that he inherited from the bush administration, where the whole country's economy collapsed because of those titans up on wall street that tied up the finances of this country, and literally, we've had the largest transfer of wealth in american history from main street to wall street. you think that mitt romney, who was a part of that culture, is going to change anything for the people of this country? i say stay the course and keep that unemployment rate dropping. >> congresswoman marcy kaptur in my home state of ohio, thank you so much. it's good talking to you. >> thank you very much. >> you do have to say, anne and

jackie, that you know, there is that imagery, wall street versus sesame street that the democrats clearly want to pound home to marcy kaptur's last point. at a fund-raiser last night, i thought it was interesting that the president was once again talking about the debate. listen. >> listen. you know, after the debate, i had a bunch of folks come up to me, don't be so polite, don't be so nice. [ cheers and applause ] but i want everybody to understand something -- what was being presented wasn't leadership. that's salesmanship. >> my question for both of you, and anne, let me start with you -- if you're the president and you're making comments like that at fund-raisers and you're also putting out this "sesame

street" ad, is it the best strategy to remind people about the debate? >> well, they have to do some version of cleanup after the debate, of course, and ignoring it is not going to make the reviews of the debate go away. i think they're trying to take the best parts of the debate for the president, emphasize those, have him make fun of himself a little bit. it seems humanizing for him to -- i don't know if polite is the way people described his performance in the debate, but he's talking to a crowd of supporters, some of whom might have been disappointed that he didn't come out swang more. so, if he can squash some of their fears that he won't come out the same next time or make them laugh, that's probably for the best. i'll say this, i don't think that can work twice. and i think we're hearing from his advisers what you would expect, which is if he's working hard for the next debate. so, i expect it to be pretty short lived. and up next, the vice presidential debate, and pretty soon, that will be all we're talking about. >> and jackie, we'll be talking to frank newport of gallup, and i'm hoping that we're going to get some insight, but do you think some of the debate

disappointment was mitigated by the jobs numbers on friday? >> you know, we'll have to see. i think so, but, and i don't think some of the polling we've seen reflects that yet. we'll see. there's going to be a lot of polls coming out this week. i think we can bet on that. and you'll be able to see, maybe not definitively, but a little clearer whether those jobs numbers help the president. >> jackie kucinich, anne kornblut, great to have both of you here. thank you. >> thanks. want to let you know, besides politics, we are following this developing story. jerry sandusky is in court right now receiving his sentence on 45 child sex abuse counts, and he faces up to 440 years in prison. for the first time since his conviction, we heard from sandusky himself, again insi insisting he's innocent. we'll be live from outside court with new audio 2 hour whitening kit is proven to quickly remove surface stains and deep stains in just two hours. [ female announcer ] rembrandt® deeply white™: whiten in just 2 hours.

or treat gas with these after you get it. now that's like sunblock before or sun burn cream later. oh, somebody out there's saying, now i get it! take beano before and there'll be no gas. his morning starts with arthritis pain. and two pills. afternoon's overhaul starts with more pain. more pills. triple checking hydraulics. the evening brings more pain. so, back to more pills. almost done, when... hang on. stan's doctor recommended aleve. it can keep pain away all day with fewer pills than tylenol. this is rudy. who switched to aleve. and two pills for a day free of pain. ♪ and get the all day pain relief of aleve in liquid gels.

the latest numbers from gallup show president obama has been regaining some ground on mitt romney, who's continuing to bask in the post debate afterglow. three days of polling after the debate, take a look, romney polling even with the president, erasing a five-point deficit. but then friday's strong jobs report could turn that around. i'm joined now by gallup poll editor in chief frank newport. frank, good to see you. good morning. >> good morning! >> okay, so, let me know what you think. how's the race shaping up? how much have we seen? how much have you been able to poll up to this point? >> boy, we're studying the numbers. in fact, we're just looking at the numbers from last night, which we're adding to our rolling average which we will report out at 1:00 today at gallup.com. our view of the race is that romney definitely got a significant boost on thursday and friday of last week. and by the way, that's probably what was picked up for the most part in that pew poll that was discussed. >> okay. >> but when we monitor our data from saturday and sunday, and now just looking at the numbers from last night, obama is

picking back up again. so, we think that that continuation of a huge move by romney is not in the data. so, overall, we would say it's looking like the race is, among registered voters, still tilting slightly in obama's direction. among likely voters, which we'll begin reporting out today, we think that romney will probably have an even orvery, very slight lead. >> so, based on what you're looking at, and i know you're not reporting the full numbers until 1:00, but based on the raw data you're looking at, has the president regained what he lost after the debate? is he just closing some of what he lost? how would you characterize it? >> well, that's a good question. i would say that obama has gained back some of what he has lost but has not gained back to where he was prior to the debate when he was ahead by five points among registered voters. i would say since that it looks like he's gained some of it back but not all of it. so, we will see. every day we get new data in. but certainly, i don't think that romney has established and then been able to keep the very strong position that he got on thursday and friday.

>> you know, mitt romney's strong debate performance is, of course, raising the stakes for thursday's vice presidential debate as well as the two remaining presidential debates. and you and i talked before the debate how sometimes they can move the numbers. how does mitt romney's jump, as you've seen it so far, stack up with prior presidential debates? >> well, certainly, his debate performance itself is historic! you know, we've said to americans, who did better? it was a 52-point margin. and this is thursday and friday, and by then, i think people who have been watching your station and others have kind of learned that romney did better, but nevertheless, that's a huge gap, as you see. clinton also did well in '92 against bush the elder, but not as well. and barack obama himself did good back in '08, but again, not as well. but as we've been talking about, the real impact of the debates that people are interested in is, does it change the probability that one candidate will win or not? and romney picked up short term, but long term doesn't look as much, but we'll continue to monitor it. >> there is also the question of

the vice presidential debate. have vice presidential debates ever moved the numbers in any significant way, frank? >> interesting question. can't go back to the 1800s. we don't see it. you know, we don't poll as much about the veep debates as presidentials, so it's hard to get precise, but it's hard to get any indication. even with the palin/biden debate in '08 that everybody watched so much, it's hard to get an indication that they make a huge difference. for example, lloyd benson did well, you'll remember, lloyd benson in '88 against dan quayle, but benson's ticket lost. >> i knew jack kennedy. jack kennedy was a friend of mine, yes. okay, new pew poll out today shows mitt romney with a four-point lead over president obama among likely voters, but of course, everyone is watching polls from the key battleground states -- ohio, florida, michigan, to some extent now. is there any indication, or do you see any trends looking at the national numbers that tell you, do they influence voters in swing states? do they give us an indication of how voting might go in swing

states? >> oh, absolutely, on the latter, an indication. one of the reasons we at gallup focus a lot on the national numbers is because the same tide that will sweep voters nationally usually will move voters in the swing states. it's very rare that the national numbers don't reflect what's in the swing states or the electoral college. 200020 being the most recent exception. so yes, if we're seeing romney doing better nationally, there's no doubt we will see him, as we have in some polls, doing better in the swing states as well. so, the two move in lockstep based on our analysis. >> frank newport, always fascinating to have you on. we will be looking at your website at 1:00 sharp. if you want to give us an early taste of it, feel free to e-mail me. >> will do. >> thank you, frank. good to see you again. a new study shows that for the first time ever, the u.s. does not have a protestant majority. the pew survey says the percentage of protestant adults has fallen to 48%. it's not so much that people are changing faiths. the number of americans with no religious affiliation at all has increased from 15% to 20% in the

last five years. there's an interesting political twist to all of this. those who describe themselves as having no religion vote mostly for democrats and support abortion rights and gay marriage. losing weight clicked for me when i had everything i needed to lose weight right in my hands. sophomore year started weight watchers online, the weight started coming off. ahh! oh my gosh! [ laughs ] we're college kids, we go out all the time. having my food tracker on my phone, i can figure out

what i'm having at the restaurant. i lost 73 pounds with weight watchers online. i don't think i've ever smiled this much in my whole life. it kind of hurts my cheeks. [ female announcer ] join for free. hurry, offer ends october 20th. weight watchers online. finally, losing weight clicks. i'd like to thank eating right, whole grain, multigrain cheerios! mom, are those my jeans? [ female announcer ] people who choose more whole grain tend to weigh less than those who don't. multigrain cheerios

in-wash scent boosters, here with my favorite new intern, jimmy. mmm! fresh! and it's been in the closet for 12 weeks! unbelievable! unstopables! follow jimmy on downy.com for free samples breaking news right now. the judge has just handed down the sentence for jerry sandusky. nbc's john yang is live outside the courthouse. john, what can you tell us? >> reporter: i am not hearing program. >> can we just tell john to report to us what's going on? i know he doesn't have communication with us, but can somebody who is on scene with him tell him to report what we just heard from inside that courtroom? >> reporter: jerry sandusky to no fewer than 30 years in prison, no more than 60.

sandusky, of course, is 68 years old. he will spend at least 30 years in prison. so, this clearly is a life sentence, effectively a life sentence for jerry sandusky, for the 45 counts of child sex abuse that he was convicted of in june. the sentence came after he spoke for about 18 minutes in what's being described as a rambling statement to the court. it also came after three of the victims who testified against sandusky told the court of the impact on them, the emotional impact that the alleged crimes had on him. one talked about how he was a father now himself and that how he cannot let his young son out of his sight because of what happened to him with jerry sandusky when he was a young man. so, once again, the sentence no fewer than 30 years, no more than 60 years for 45 counts of

child sexual abuse against jerry sandusky. chris? >> i see michael isikoff. can michael move in? because i know michael was in the courtroom. >> hi, chris. yeah, i just came out of the courtroom. >> tell us what it was like in the courtroom. >> a very emotional hearing. you had a number of the victims choked up and broke down in tears. at one point, even joseph mcgettigan, the prosecutor, seemed to choke up at the end of his statement, saying that no words could exist that could repair the damage jerry sandusky had done. sandusky himself, as john said, gave a rambling statement all over the map, talked about his days as a penn state football coach, the agony of defeat as well as the thrills of victory, talked about the times he spent with children and hoped that some glimmer of hope might come

out of all this. talked about how in his prison cell, he reached over on his 46th wedding anniversary to hug his wife dottie and banged into a wall. judge cleland was very stern and measured in his talk. he called this a story of betrayal. he said your crime, addressing sandusky, is not just the assault you did on these victims' bodies, but the assault you did on their psyches and their souls, and he said the sentence he was imposing of 30 years, knowing, recognizing that sandusky was a 68-year-old man, means that you will go to jail for the rest of your life. >> and i know that sandusky'sam has said that he's going to pursue this and appeal this, which is not a surprise, but does it seem like there are significant grounds for an appeal? >> reporter: well, the grounds

for appeal that sandusky's lawyer have cited was that they didn't have enough time to prepare their defense, to research all the victims' stories, to come up with evidence that might dispute those stories. it is a reed that they can hang on. they will certainly try to make the most of it on appeal, but i think the sheer power of these eight victims who testified, plus the evidence about the assaults to two other victims, is so overwhelming, it makes it a very steep hill for sandusky to climb and a long-shot at best. i think sandusky realized that, you could tell, he broke down, by the way, at the end of his statement, choked up. there were a number of times that both the victims, and even mcgettigan, the prosecutor, made much of the fact that during the trial sandusky would seem to smile and smirk at the testimony. and i have to say, even as during this hearing, when the

victims began to talk, sandusky was impassive and seemed to have a half smile on his face, didn't react, even as these victims were talking about the damage that he had done to them. but when it came time for him to talk, and towards the end, as he rambled on, he seemed to break down, choke up and break down himself. one other point i want to make, chris, is we've all now heard portions of that extraordinary audio broadcast that sandusky made yesterday from his jail cell, and judge cleland made note of that, took note of that, saying, noting sandusky's conspiracy theories about what happened to him, and he said, like all conspiracy theories, these range from the undeniable to the unbelievable. it was pretty clear that judge cleland was not happy about that radio broadcast. >> and stay with us, michael. i want to bring john in as well.

and john, i see they're setting up microphones behind you. are we expecting to hear from the lawyers from both sides? >> we are expecting to hear from them as they come out. i can also tell you, chris, that sandusky has been taken from the courthouse, driven away in a sheriff's car. i think you had pictures of that a little bit earlier. we expect him eventually to be taken to the state reception center, the state prison reception center in camp hill, pennsylvania, where he'll be tested, evaluated, and they'll figure out where to place him in the system. yesterday, his lawyer said that sandusky very much wants to avoid solitary confinement. he'd like to be put into the general prison population. but of course, with sexual offenders, especially child sex offenders, that's something that prison, that officials don't like to do, do not like to put them into the general population. >> i should just add here that at the beginning of the hearing, sandusky was officially branded

a sexually violent predator, offender, under megan's law. that requires a certain classification in the prison system. and we know that prison officials have reason to be worried about the safety of somebody like sandusky. there have been four prisoners who have died in pennsylvania prisons over the last two years. and given all the emotions of sandusky's case, it is likely, i think, that he would get solitary for his own protection. >> i want to bring in a legal analyst, john cue kelly. and john, let me pick up on what michael and john were saying. >> sure. >> what factors will go into the judge's decision or the system's decision, i guess, about where exactly jerry sandusky ends up serving his time? >> i think the main consideration is going to be his own safety, you know, where they can put him and whether he should be in general population or solitary confinement for his own safety. >> will he undergo some sort of emotional, mental evaluation?

now, they were mentioning that sometimes his emotions have seemed inappropriate. we saw him when we saw him get out of the vehicle this morning he was smiling, which struck a lot of us who were watching, as a little bit odd. his statement was rambling. what will be the process before he actually ends up getting assigned to a prison? >> well, before you go to any state prison in pennsylvania, they'll go to a central place where they'll do the mental and physical evaluations and decide whether he's capable of interacting with other prisoners. and as i said once again, whether it will be safe or not for him to do that. you know, it's a life sentence he's going to be serving, and quite frankly, chris, i'm surprised at the minimal nature of the sentence. >> you are surprised. >> i'm very surprised. >> is it because it sends, you think, the wrong message, given the number of counts against him, or why? because it is essentially for a man of his age a life sentence. >> i know, but the big part of the sentencing is for the

victims here, and basically, what judge cleland did was say i'm going to merge some of these sentences, and some of the time you're doing is not going to be for each individual victim. so basically, he's getting a free pass on some of the time he's doing for some of the acts he perpetrated on some of the victims, and i don't agree with it at all. i think it's wrong. >> john q. kelly, thanks to you. >> sure. >> michael isikoff, john yang on scene in pennsylvania. our thanks to them as well and we'll continue to follow this breaking news throughout the day here on msnbc. but up next, preparing for the vice presidential debate. we'll be right back. go! here it comes! right in the numbers.

boom! get it! spin! oh nice hands! now this is my favorite play! oh! [ male announcer ] share what you love, with who you love. kellogg's frosted flakes. they're grrreat!

we are just two days out from the one and only vice presidential debate, with both candidates deep in preparation for the face-off that really has taken on new significance after that first presidential debate. joe biden's preps are being led by obama's senior campaign adviser, david axelrod. the vice president has been reviewing ryan's speeches. he's reading "young guns," the book that ryan co-wrote.

he's done at least three mock debates. paul ryan has been watching tapes of biden's previous debate appearances and rehearsing for what is likely to be a major offensive. >> i really think that, you know, because they had such a bad debate, that joe is just going to come flying at us. and it seems pretty clear that their new strategy is basically just call us liars. >> i'm joined now by the former communications director for the edwards presidential campaign and robert train yam, an msnbc contributor and bush/cheney adviser. good morning to both of you. >> good morning. >> good morning. >> we know both men have been hunkered down preparing for this debate. in these closing days, chris what do they do? >> this debate has kind of gained more significance because of the last debate. >> yeah. >> i would actually say significances for both candidates, because romney's campaign clearly wants to try to build on the momentum and the obama campaign wants to blunt it. vice president biden is going to come in and he's going to be a hurricane, i think, on congressman ryan. i will be stunned if there's not

at least one expletive and one fist thrown in the debate. >> by joe biden? >> by both sides. in all seriousness, i think what the vice president's going to do is undercut and attack congressman ryan, force him to basically give the truth behind his statistics. ryan's going to come in with a blizzard of facts. the fact is, you have to call him out. when you call him out, that's when his arguments start falling apart. >> and he's pretty good at that, robert. he's pretty good at defending his budget numbers. what do you expect to see? >> you know, i respectfully disagree with chris a little bit. i don't think this is going to be a big hurricane coming into this debate. here's why, two reasons. >> come on, that's not nearly as much fun. >> well, look, here's why. two reasons. number one, i think the expectations level for this debate is so high that i think it's incumbent upon vice president biden and congressman ryan to kind of lower expectations from a figurative standpoint. but number two, this debate -- look, these are two very smart individuals, two very smart policy wonkz that like to get into the weeds and i think we're

going to have an honest, substantive conversation about medicare, about social security, about the role of government, and i think it's going to be, for lack of a better term, chris and chris, i think this is going to be a gentlemen's debate more than a hurricane-type debate. >> okay. >> i hope that's the case, at least. >> well, in 2008, in the vice presidential debate, joe biden took care like he was patronizing or bullying sarah palin, which to be clear is a different dynamic when you're debating a woman, and by most accounts, he succeeded at doing that, but a lot of people believe his best attribute is his sort of everyman persona. take a look at his debate against sarah palin. >> the notion that, somehow, because i'm a man, i don't know what it's like to raise two kids alone. i don't know what it's like to have a child you're not sure is going to make it. >> chris, that was powerful at the time and congressman ryan being more of a policy wonk, kind of deep in the numbers, what do you think about sort of just their personalities and what that brings to the debate?

>> well, on the personality front, the vice president has a huge advantage. he's incredibly gregarious, he's affable, you know, he's personable, he's got great stories. he's an old-school politician and he's clearly going to try, i think, when he makes the arguments, to congressman ryan, he's going to make the point about, wait a second, your policies are going to really hurt middle class families, and he's going to paint that picture. and i would say that congressman ryan's going to come back and try to undercut it with a blizzard of statistics. and that's where i think the challenge is, and that's where i think it's not the first exchange, it's the second exchange that's going to dictate who's winning, because then the vice president's got to come back, and when the vice president comes back -- i'm sorry, when the congressman comes back with his statistics, you've got to undercut him and say, wait a second, you're ignoring the fact that your tax cut plan that you say is going to help the middle class actually hurts the middle class, that kind of thing. >> let me get your reaction to something that was interesting in "new york" magazine. jonathan chait wrote "the

audience will only be able to grasp the atmospherics of the debate and paul ryan is a world-class bluffer." >> well, i'm not sure i agree on both fronts. number one, i think the american people are pretty smart when it comes to basic common sense and understand basic arithmetic and so forth, and they also understand that if you spend your way out of a problem, you've got to pay for it in some way, shape or form, meaning higher taxes or some type of revenue. so i'm not sure i agree with the first statement. secondly, going back here, i think that joe biden, no question, being from pennsylvania, being from the inner city, there's no question that joe biden has that connection and touch, but also, with all due respect, having worked with ryan as a staffer in the new york state senate and also a congressman, paul ryan has that touch, but connects with the average farmer or person out there that lives in the suburbs, sort of two very different audiences there. the question becomes, and i agree with chris to a certain degree here, is whether or not paul ryan can follow up with a very good follow-up question

and/or when vice president biden asks a follow-up question on the statistics, if paul can humanize those facts -- excuse me, congressman ryan can humanize those facts and statistics. that's where i think paul ryan needs to do a better job come this debate. >> robert traynham, chris kofinis, thank you very much. we'll see who's right on that one. and just ahead, why todd akin is suddenly popular in states where he's not on the ticket. nyquil doesn't unstuff your nose. what? [ male announcer ] alka-seltzer plus liquid gels speeds relief to your worst cold symptoms plus has a decongestant for your stuffy nose. thanks. that's the cold truth!

[ male announcer ] you've reached the age where you don't back down from a challenge. this is the age of knowing how to make things happen. so, why let erectile dysfunction get in your way? talk to your doctor about viagra. 20 million men already have. ask your doctor if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take viagra if you take nitrates for chest pain; it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. side effects include headache, flushing, upset stomach, and abnormal vision. to avoid long-term injury, seek immediate medical help for an erection lasting more than four hours. stop taking viagra and call your doctor right away if you experience a sudden decrease or loss in vision or hearing. this is the age of taking action. viagra. talk to your doctor.

missouri senate candidate todd akin has become the democrats' favorite opponent, even in states where he's not on the ticket. in congressional races in washington state, in california, arizona, new york, democrats have featured akin and his controversial views on rape and abortion in ads attacking their opponent. >> there are some things you have to draw a line as just too extreme, like ann marie burkle and what actually constitutes rape. buerkle co-sponsored a bill with congressman todd akin that would redefine rape to mean only forcible rape. >> i'm joined by anna palmer, who's just written about this new strategy. anna, good morning. >> good morning. >> one of the things we talked about when akin first made these remarks is whether they would have legs. it is interesting to me that we're seeing them now. is there any indication that it's working? >> right now we're really just starting to see kind of the tip of the iceberg in a lot of other

states it's starting to come out. and even when akin isn't mentioned by name, it's really given democrats an edge to bring up rape or members, kind of votes on some controversial women's issues. and so far, i don't think we've quite seen whether or not it's actually going to play out in their favor, but it's definitely a tactic that they see a as a winni winning one. >> are you hearing anything that this might expand and we'll see this with other congressional races? >> sure, some of the states you mentioned. we've also seen it in arizona where democrats are attacking representative flake and some of his votes on rape as well as in virginia against former senator, you know, in terms of the amendment on the ballot there. and we also are starting to see conservatives hit back. so, it will be something that's going to play out for the next month or so. >> well, todd akin just tweeted that he raised $1 million in online donations for his campaign and claire mccaskill said she's raised almost $6 million in the quarter ending in

september. we've seen groups like emily's list and other groups raising money in missouri. how is money playing into this race? >> it's an issue because not only are the democratic parties in the senate and house doing this, but we're also seeing the conservative groups. there's a group up with ads that just started a super pac. the women's group that is going to be up in ohio, virginia, and i believe florida, that is really targeting obama as an abortion radical. so, this is, you know, in terms of having money and being able to have air time is very important. >> and one of the things we saw after he made those comments is that mitt romney and his campaign disavowed them. a lot of top republicans. but slowly, we've seen some coming back into his fold. rick santorum, the jim demints, newt gingrich. there we see the pictures of all of them. and i wonder if that kind of helps play into the democrats' strategy a little bit. >> absolutely. i mean, i think one of the things you saw right away was

the real republican establishment taking a step away, saying they disavowed him. and right now what we're starting to see is some of the establishment types come back and say they really need missouri to win, but it really feeds into the democratic narrative that todd akin said what all of the other republicans think and just won't say it out loud. >> well, one of the things todd akin said when he made a decision to stay in this race, the strategy that beheard from inside his campaign was that he believed that since the republicans wanted to win control of the senate, he thought when push came to shove at the end, they would start putting money into this race. where does it stand right now? could he win? >> it's very tight. i mean, claire mccaskill is definitely up, but we're going to start seeing. i mean, right now, there's a lot of buys that are happening, there are last-minute outside groups. conservatives need this race to take the majority in the senate. and so you know, it's very likely that we'll start seeing some money start pouring into the state. >> politico's anna palmer, it was a great article. thanks so much for being on the show.

>> thank you. today's "tweet of the day" comes from nate silver, who writes "the polls are undersampling 9-year-olds and cookie monsters, which is why you don't see obama getting a big bird bounce." [ coughs ] ♪ you can't let a cold keep you up tonight. [ snores ] vicks nyquil. powerful nighttime 6-symptom cold & flu relief. ♪ if you can't take a sick day, here's a cold hard fact. alka-seltzer plus cold & cough may cause marked drowsiness. try dayquil cold and flu for non-drowsy relief of these symptoms. so you can save the day, not worry about falling asleep. [ laughter ] we create easy to use, powerful trading tools for all. look at these streaming charts!

they're totally customizable and they let you visualize what might happen next. that's genius! strategies, chains, positions. we put 'em all on one screen! could we make placing a trade any easier? mmmm...could we? open an account today and get a free 13-month e ibd™ subscription when you call 1-888-280-0157 now. optionsxpress by charles schwab. and it's working. i'm not hungry. i'm just losing weight eating real food in the real world. and it feels pretty awesome. [ female announcer ] join now for free. hurry offer ends october 20th. weight watchers. because it works.

our second quote of the day from "the new york times'" nate silver. he says "a challenger trailing ahead of the first debate has only won once in ten presidential contests. so, an october surprise could certainly help mitt romney." richard lui here, and so far, october's been interesting. >> it's been very busy. it is the tide-turning moment that gives one candidate a big boost, but has the october surprise already come and gone? well, the month started with a bang. october the 3rd, post-debate headlines read "obama camp licking wounds," "obama lost the debate" and "romney leads obama." two days later, unemployment drops to 7.8%. it surprised experts, took away an attack line and energized the

president's campaign. the october surprise, though, could still be out there. perhaps another video like romney's 47% comment. salon says it has a reliable source saying republican operatives could have such a video. or there's gas prices hitting $5 in california. will they rise enough there or in swing states to affect november? another possibility, israel attacking iran and its nuclear program. if before the election, it could hammer the economy, an unfortunate irony as well, given iran is what reminds many of the term october surprise. during the 1980 election, president carter was trying to end the iran hostage crisis. it tha didn't happen until after he lost and president ronald reagan was sworn in. going back further to this. >> we believe that peace is at hand. >> well, days before the 1972 election, president nixon's national security adviser, henry kissinger, says an agreement is close on the vietnam war.

nixon wins in a landslide. more recently, in the 2004 election, this osama bin laden video is released by al jazeera. hours later, president george w. bush goes to the microphone. >> let me make this very clear, americans will not be intimidated or influenced by an enemy of our country. >> and bush widens his lead, beating john kerry. chris, this election, the october surprise may not come until november the 2rd. that's the day the final jobs report is released that we're all watching. >> we are, and we're still waiting to see the full impact on the polls from this first jobs report. thank you so much, richard lui. and that's going to wrap up this hour of "jansing & co." i'm chris jansing. thomas roberts is up next. hello, thomas. >> hi, chris. good morning, everybody. the breaking news from pennsylvania, convicted pedophile, 68-year-old jerry sandusky sentenced to at least 30 years behind bars. details on the emotional victim impact statements and the 18-minute first-person

explanation from jerry sandusky himself. then, with just 28 days, that's it, left in the presidential race, it has never been tighter and we've got two new battleground polls that may be a huge wake-up call for the president's re-election team. and both president obama and mitt romney know the path to the white house leads straight through ohio. both men stumping there today, the last day for ohio voters to register for this very election. ohio state senator nina turner is going to join me live on set. that and more coming up.

humans -- sometimes life trips us up. and sometimes, we trip ourselves up, but that's okay. at liberty mutual insurance we can "untrip" you as you go through your life with personalized policies and discounts when you need them most. just call... and speak with a licensed representative about saving on your policy when you get married, move into a new house... [crash!] or add a car to your policy. don't forget to ask about saving up to 10% when you combine your auto and home insurance with liberty mutual. security, coverage, and savings. all the things humans need to make our beautifully imperfect world a little less imperfect. call... and lock in your rate for 12 months. liberty mutual insurance. responsibility. what's your policy? c'mon, michael! get in the game!

[ male announcer ] don't have the hops for hoops with your buddies? lost your appetite for romance? and your mood is on its way down. you might not just be getting older. you might have a treatable condition called low testosterone or low t. millions of men, forty-five or older, may have low t. so talk to your doctor about low t. hey, michael! [ male announcer ] and step out of the shadows. hi! how are you? [ male announcer ] learn more at isitlowt.com. [ laughs ] hey! hi, everybody. good morning. i'm thomas roberts. topping the agenda today, is this a seismic shift? 28 days to go and one new poll has to have team obama worried. mitt romney not only advancing but sprinting into the lead following the first presidential debate. pew research putting the governor four points ahead and shows him all but erasing that very wide gender gap that the president had been counting on. getting a bounce out of this conventi convention, he's got a bounce. this is what a bounce looks like. a